Weekly Briefing • September 28, 2026 • Issue #33
Brent Near $107; Canada Import Bans Start September 29
Five things changed this week, each for its own reason. Brent crude is near $107, up from about $102 last week. A specific list of Canadian goods becomes unimportable at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29. The U.S. and China each published a list of about $30 billion in goods that could get better tariff treatment, with no rate or date attached. Container shipping rates fell on average, while the Los Angeles route rose. Tariff exclusions on Chinese goods expire November 9, a different date than the truce extension to January 10.
Issue #33. None of this week's five developments changed because of another one. Oil moved on a rejected diplomatic offer, not on anything happening in a port. The Canada ban has its own effective hour. The new tariff lists have no rate or date, so they don't change what anyone pays yet. The November 9 exclusion deadline is not affected by the January 10 truce extension — they are different agreements. Container rates moved in different directions on different routes under one average number.
This Week's Briefing
Oil Is Up. That Changes One Cost, Not All of Them.
Brent crude is near $107 a barrel, up from about $102 last week. Ships run on fuel priced off Brent, not off WTI, the U.S. domestic benchmark, which is near $94.
The price rose after President Trump rejected an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Iran said it would not soften its terms. Trump said he still expects talks this week.
A rejected offer and an expectation of talks are two different things from an operational change in the Gulf. War-risk insurance and Gulf surcharges are set by insurers and carriers, not by the state of a negotiation. Nothing here shows either one has moved.
Oil is at $107 today. It was $102 a week ago. That is the number for the fuel surcharge this week.
Fuel surcharge basis: $107 this week, $102 last week. War-risk and Gulf surcharge lines: unchanged.
Hormuz Traffic Rose This Week. It Is Still Far Below Normal.
Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz numbered 132 from September 21 to 27, according to MarineTraffic data cited by Al Jazeera. The week before, the count was 116. Before the war, the strait saw about 130 crossings a day.
A week's total that comes close to one pre-war day is not a return to normal traffic. It is a small fraction of it.
UK Maritime Trade Operations, which tracks the southern route, reports two separate figures for the week ending September 25: about 30 vessels a day under what it calls facilitated passage, and about 6 a day visible on ship-tracking signals. The week before, those figures were about 24 and 7. UKMTO says it cannot fully verify the facilitated count against the tracking data, and it describes overall traffic as still far below pre-conflict levels.
Two organizations, two different counts, pointing the same direction: more ships moved this week than last week. Neither count shows the strait functioning normally.
132 transits this week, 116 last week, about 130 a day before the war. Confirm routing and insurance terms with the carrier and insurer directly rather than from a weekly count.
A List of Canadian Goods Becomes Unimportable September 29
Starting at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29, a specific list of Canadian-origin goods can no longer be imported into the United States. CBC reported the date on September 28. EY, CargoTrans, and Legal500 describe the same list.
The list covers packaged beer, wine, cider, and spirits; a type of whey classified under tariff code 0404.10; certain molasses; non-alcoholic beer; and motorcycles with engines over 800 cubic centimeters. It does not cover cars, most Canadian dairy, bulk alcohol, or motorcycles at or under 800 cc.
A tariff is a cost. You can choose to pay it. A ban is different: the goods cannot enter regardless of what you're willing to pay.
One exception exists. Goods already imported before September 29, but not yet formally entered with Customs, can still clear under the existing 50 percent extra duty. After that hour, that option closes for goods on the list.
Effective hour: 12:01 a.m. Eastern, September 29. Applies to the listed products only. A customs broker can confirm whether a specific product is on the list.
Two Lists, $30 Billion Each, With No Rate Attached
The U.S. and China each published a list of goods on September 28, worth about $30 billion, that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described as recommended for "more favorable tariff treatment in the future." The White House and a joint framework called "30-for-30" describe the same set of lists.
The U.S. list, reported by Reuters and CNBC, covers about 77 categories of Chinese consumer goods, including bed linens, small kitchen appliances, tableware, and holiday decorations. China's list covers U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, and oils, plus seafood, wood, cosmetics, and medical devices. Soybeans are not on it, according to Reuters.
Neither government published a tariff rate or a start date.
In 2018 and 2019, the last time lists like this were published, weeks passed between the announcement and an actual change to what importers paid. Until a rate and a date exist, these lists describe an intention, not a change to any entry.
No rate, no date, no change to any current entry. Products on either list are worth noting, not yet filing against.
November 9 Is a Different Date Than January 10
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S.–China trade truce now runs until January 10, 2027.
That date does not apply to two other deadlines. Tariff exclusions on certain Chinese goods, claimed under code 9903.88.69, expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on November 9, 2026, unless the U.S. Trade Representative issues a new extension. A separate suspension of extra fees on China-linked vessels expires at the same time, under the same condition.
About 210 trade associations, organized through the World Shipping Council and joined by the International Chamber of Shipping, asked the Trade Representative on September 23 to extend the vessel-fee suspension. That is a request. It is not a decision.
Two deadlines: November 9 for the exclusions and vessel fees, January 10 for the broader truce. An extension of one does not extend the other.
November 9, 11:59 p.m. Eastern: exclusions and vessel-fee suspension expire absent a new USTR notice. January 10, 2027 is unrelated to that date.
The Average Container Rate Fell 1%. The Los Angeles Route Rose 2%.
Drewry's World Container Index, an average of shipping rates across major routes, fell 1% to $4,468 per 40-foot container on September 24.
Underneath that average, routes moved differently. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 2%, to $7,838. Shanghai–New York was essentially flat, at $10,373, down $21. Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 4%, to $3,485. Shanghai–Genoa fell 5%, to $3,835.
An average made of four numbers moving in different directions describes the average. It doesn't describe any one route.
Carriers have also cancelled 15 sailings on trans-Pacific routes for the week of September 28, up from 9 the week before, and 7 on Asia–Europe routes, up from 3. Drewry connects the increase to China's Golden Week holiday, October 1–7, which slows factory output and export bookings. Separately, 48 container ships transited the Suez Canal in the week of September 14–20, up from 41 the week before.
Composite: $4,468, down 1%. Los Angeles: $7,838, up 2%. The rate on a specific booking depends on the specific route, not the composite.
Five Changes, Five Reasons
Oil moved on a rejected diplomatic offer. Hormuz traffic rose on its own count, still far below its pre-war level. The Canada ban takes effect on its own clock. The new tariff lists have no rate or date, so nothing has changed for any current shipment. The November 9 exclusion deadline stands regardless of the January 10 truce extension. Container rates fell on average while one major route rose. Each of these has its own evidence. None of them moved the others.
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This Week's Checklist
- Canada. If you import packaged alcohol, certain whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, or motorcycles over 800 cc from Canada, a customs broker can confirm whether your specific goods are on the list and whether they clear before 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29.
- The new tariff lists. No rate or date exists yet for the U.S. or China lists. There's nothing to file against until one is published.
- November 9. The tariff exclusions and the vessel-fee suspension both expire that day unless the Trade Representative extends them. That's about six weeks out.
- Cancelled sailings. Fifteen trans-Pacific and seven Asia–Europe sailings are cancelled this week. If a shipment was booked on one of them, the carrier can confirm which vessel it's moving to, and whether the container size changed.
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What to Watch, by Date
September 29, 12:01 a.m. Eastern: the Canada import ban takes effect for the listed goods. September 28–October 4: the 15 cancelled trans-Pacific sailings and 7 cancelled Asia–Europe sailings. October 1–7: China's Golden Week holiday. Through October: a Federal Register filing or a U.S. Customs notice would be the first sign the new tariff lists have a rate and a date. November 9, 11:59 p.m. Eastern: the Section 301 exclusions and the China-linked vessel-fee suspension expire unless the U.S. Trade Representative extends them. January 10, 2027: the trade truce extension — a separate date from November 9.
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