Welcome to Issue #22 of the Palletizr Logistics Digest.
The strait's partial recovery ended fast: Hormuz transits collapsed to ~6–11/day after the GFS Galaxy strike, down from mid-30s last week. Brent jumped toward $79 on renewed US–Iran hostilities while Drewry's WCI climbed to $4,639 — even as SCFI finally broke, ending a ten-week streak. Wednesday, July 15 brings the CMA CGM FAK, GRI, and HMM PSS stack into a market where oil, boxes, and routing risk point in different directions.
Hormuz Did Not Stay Quiet
Category: Geopolitics / Maritime Risk
A week ago we were talking about 34–36 daily transits and a partial recovery. That chapter closed fast.
Over the weekend, the US and Iran traded fresh strikes. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice after IRGC forces hit the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy, which suffered a severe engine-room fire. Washington and CENTCOM insist the waterway remains open to commercial traffic. The AIS data is the tie-breaker most of us will trust: Windward counted 11 total transits on July 12 (5 in, 6 out). Kpler, via TRT World and other wires, showed roughly six vessels on Sunday, July 13 — a five-week low. Pre-war norms were still ~130 vessels a day.
The southern Omani corridor, which had been doing a lot of the quiet work during the June reopening, looks badly damaged. Windward's July 11 read had only one of twelve outbound ships using it. Lloyd's List reporting on the JMIC threat assessment still describes the southern route as available under coalition coordination — usable in doctrine, avoided in practice when operators do not trust the lane. Insurance and routing often follow that fear before any physical blockade does.
Trump can say the strait is open. Tehran can say it is closed. Shippers will keep asking a simpler question: how many hulls actually crossed, and what did war-risk cost?
| Hormuz Signal | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| July 11 (Windward) | 21 transits |
| July 12 (Windward) | 11 transits |
| July 13 (Kpler) | ~6 vessels |
| Pre-war baseline | ~130/day |
| Political status | Iran: closed / US: open |
The Bottom Line: Treat Hormuz as re-closed in practice until daily counts climb and stay there. Do not rebook Gulf-dependent timing on a presidential quote alone.
Oil Remembers How to Jump
Category: Energy & Fuel
Cheap oil was last week's story. This week's is the reverse.
On July 13, Brent pushed into the high $70s — Al Jazeera had September Brent near $78.82 early Monday; Trading Economics showed roughly $79.21. WTI climbed about 4% toward the mid-$74s. That is not April's $126 panic, but it is a clean break from the ~$72 "pre-war level" print we flagged in Issue #21.
The market is not waiting for a confirmed multi-week physical shutdown. It is pricing uncertainty: conflicting open/closed claims, attacks on commercial hulls, and the knowledge that roughly a fifth of seaborne oil normally moves through that choke point.
If you pushed BAF tables down toward $72 last week — good instinct at the time — you now need to walk them back toward ~$79 without pretending container freight will politely follow oil in either direction.
The Action: Update fuel clauses this week. Do not assume last Monday's bunker math still holds for Friday's sailing.
WCI Keeps Climbing. SCFI Finally Breaks. Both Can Be True.
Category: Freight Markets / Container
Here is the awkward part of the week — and the part that will confuse anyone who only watches one index.
Drewry's July 9 World Container Index rose another 2% to $4,639 per 40ft — a two-year high and the highest since September 2024, according to Drewry and Container News. Asia–Europe did the heavy lifting: Shanghai–Rotterdam +5% to $4,933, Genoa +2% to $6,463. Transpacific was quieter: Los Angeles +2% to $6,482, New York flat at $7,904. Drewry still sees tight capacity — only three Transpacific and four Asia–Europe blank sailings on the near-term slate — and carriers are still talking GRIs of $2,000–$3,000/40ft from July 15.
Then Friday's SCFI arrived and ended the party narrative. The composite fell 142 points (−4.27%) to 3,184.83, snapping a ten-week winning streak. Lloyd's List, China Times, and Taiwan trade press all tell the same story: front-loading cooled, extra Transpacific tonnage showed up, and spot quotes cracked — especially US West, down about 6.2% to $6,219/FEU. US East slipped to $8,134/FEU.
So which market is "real"? Both, in different rooms. Drewry's WCI is still catching the firm Asia–Europe / contract-adjacent print. SCFI is flashing that the frothiest Shanghai spot — especially Transpacific — took a breath. Peak season did not vanish. It got messy.
| Index / Lane | This Week | Move |
|---|---|---|
| WCI composite (July 9) | $4,639 | ▲ 2% |
| SCFI composite (July 10) | 3,184.83 | ▼ 4.27% |
| SCFI US West | $6,219/FEU | ▼ 6.2% |
| SCFI US East | $8,134/FEU | ▼ ~2% |
| WCI Shanghai–Rotterdam | $4,933 | ▲ 5% |
The Action: Stop treating "rates" as one number. If you are on Transpacific spot, SCFI's pullback matters. If you are staring at Asia–Europe FAK notices, Drewry's climb still owns the room.
July 15 Is Not a Suggestion
Category: Freight Markets / Carrier Pricing
Wednesday is when a lot of paper turns into money.
CMA CGM is lifting Asia–North Europe FAK to $7,000 per 40ft (and $4,100 per 20ft) for sailings July 15–31, with Mediterranean bands in the $7,900–$8,500 range for 40fts per Container News and carrier notices. Several carriers are still shopping Transpacific GRIs of $2,000–$3,000. HMM's $3,000/40ft PSS remains effective July 15.
If your team has been quoting last month's base rate into this week's POs, this is the week that habit gets expensive. Model the stack — FAK, GRI, PSS, bunker — as separate lines. We walked through the vocabulary in our July 8 guide on reading surcharge stacks; the calendar just made it urgent.
The Action: Anything that can sail before July 15 without wrecking inventory should be stress-tested now. Anything that cannot needs an all-in number, not a hopeful base rate.
CAPE: Phase 3 Is on the Calendar, Not in the Bank
Category: Trade Policy / Customs
Away from the strait, the refund machine keeps grinding. Advisory firm 721 Logistics (July 7) says CAPE Phase 3 is still aimed around July 29 for certain finally-liquidated entries tied to active CIT litigation. Phase 2 has been live since June 29, but trade counsel continue to warn that finally-liquidated refunds for non-litigants remain contested while the Federal Circuit appeal runs.
A working portal date is not a wire transfer. If your exposure is finally liquidated and you have not filed, waiting for a software release is still a strategy with a short upside.
The Action: Keep Phase 2 filings moving. For finally-liquidated claims, talk to trade counsel about 1581(i) preservation before treating July 29 as payday.
Palletizr Tip of the Week
When Indices Disagree, Your Load Plan Still Has to Be Right
This is not a week for shipping air.
- Price the stack, not the headline — July 15 FAK/GRI/PSS layers belong in the quote even if SCFI dipped.
- Reprice fuel without freezing ocean — Brent near $79 is a BAF problem; it is not a reason to wait on space.
- Fill the box you already paid for — At $4,600+ WCI levels, utilization is margin. Freeze a real load plan before cutoff, not a hopeful sketch on the warehouse floor.
Peak season plus a reopened Hormuz crisis is a terrible time to discover your 40ft is half empty.
Next Watchpoint
July 15: CMA CGM FAK, GRIs, and HMM $3,000/40ft PSS take effect — model as separate quote lines, not one headline rate. ~July 29: CAPE Phase 3 targets finally-liquidated litigant path. Mid-August: 60-day MOU window closes — base case remains interim patch, not full Hormuz normalization.
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