Welcome to Issue #20 of the Palletizr Logistics Digest — a practical weekly intelligence briefing for teams that need to move freight, explain cost changes, and make decisions before the market fully settles.
Last issue closed with signed MOU text, first Saudi VLCC transits, and a June 21 closure claim that CENTCOM disputed. This week tested whether that optimism would hold.
The answer was mixed. Hormuz traffic climbed to its highest levels since the war began, with Kpler and Al Jazeera counting roughly 70 all-vessel crossings on June 24 and S&P Global putting the peak at 78. That surge broke quickly. The container ship Ever Lovely was struck on June 25 and the tanker MT Kiku on June 27, and transit counts fell in the days that followed.
AP and UKMTO confirmed the June 25 drone hit off Oman, which damaged the vessel's bridge but caused no casualties. US officials attributed the attack to Iran, and the IMO suspended its voluntary Hormuz evacuation plan the same day. Over the weekend, US retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal targets and Iranian missile and drone fire toward Kuwait and Bahrain tested the 60-day ceasefire — yet ABC, citing Kpler, still recorded 73 crossings on Wednesday June 24 and 54 on Thursday June 25 before the June 27 attack slowed momentum further.
Oil and containers told different stories. Brent settled near $71.99/bbl on June 26 (The National), down roughly 10% on the week, even as container rates kept climbing. Cheap oil and expensive boxes remain decoupled.
This Week at a Glance
| Metric | Current Level | Change / Context |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz transits (peak week) | ~70–78/day (June 24) per Kpler/Al Jazeera/S&P | Two-month high; 42–54 on June 25 post-strike |
| Crossings since MOU | 172+ vessels since June 18 per BBC/Kpler | ~200+ tankers still inside Gulf; >80% stationary |
| Vessel attacks | June 25 (Ever Lovely) + June 27 (MT Kiku) per ABC/AP/Al Jazeera | IMO evacuation paused June 25 |
| PGSA permit regime | 48-hour advance application via PGSA.ir | Northern Larak route mandatory; 5-day permit validity |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz committee | First joint meeting June 23 per Press TV/Gulf News | Future fees under discussion; US rejects tolls |
| Southern Oman route | US-facilitated corridor in Omani waters | PGSA does not cover southern route per Seatrade |
| Drewry WCI (June 25) | $4,166/40ft | ▲ 5% WoW; 22-month high (Drewry, Container News) |
| WCI Shanghai-New York | $7,149/40ft | ▲ 6% WoW |
| WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles | $5,750/40ft | ▲ 12% WoW |
| WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam | $4,392/40ft | ▲ 1% WoW |
| SCFI (June 26) | 3,239.64 points | ▲ 3.78%; ninth weekly gain (SSE) |
| Brent crude (June 26) | ~$71.99/bbl | ▼ ~10% weekly; below pre-war levels per National |
| WTI (June 26) | ~$69.23/bbl | ▼ ~9.6% weekly (Reuters) |
| Aramco Ras Tanura | Loading resumed June 26 | First Gulf loadings in ~4 months (LSEG/Reuters) |
| CAPE Phase 2 | Live June 29 per CSMS #69035485 | Reconciliation-flagged entries (types 01, 02, 06) |
| CMA CGM July surcharges | PSS $1,000–1,400/teu; FAK $6,300–8,500/feu | Effective July 1 |
| Houthi Red Sea posture | June 8 ban still active | Cape diversions remain baseline (Lloyd's List) |
Hormuz Surges Then Stalls — Attacks Expose Ceasefire Fragility
Category: Geopolitics / Maritime Risk
The strait followed a familiar pattern this week: traffic rose sharply, a vessel was struck, and momentum faded.
After the Islamabad MOU, transits climbed quickly. BBC Verify, citing Kpler, reported 172+ vessel crossings since June 18 — including 42 on one Saturday — but still well below the pre-conflict average of ~130/day (BBC cites ~138). Al Jazeera tracked 70 transits on June 24, the highest daily count since March 1. ABC News, citing Kpler, recorded 73 crossings on Wednesday June 24 and 54 on Thursday June 25 before counts bent lower after the June 27 strike.
Then came the attacks. ABC and Gulf News reported separate incidents on June 25 and June 27, when Ever Lovely (container) and MT Kiku (tanker) were struck by projectiles in or near the strait per AP and Al Jazeera. AP and UKMTO confirmed the June 25 hit off Oman caused bridge damage but no casualties, and US officials blamed Iran. Iran's PGSA warned that vessels using routes outside its designated framework would not be guaranteed safe passage. The IMO paused its voluntary evacuation scheme after the June 25 strike per AP, with ~250+ stranded tankers and 440+ cargo ships still inside the Gulf per BBC.
AP and Al Jazeera describe US retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal military targets followed by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones toward Kuwait and Bahrain. Both sides walked the cycle back by Sunday, but shippers cannot treat that as normalization. Kpler data cited by ABC showed traffic still moving at a reduced pace after the June 27 attack, which is further proof that closure claims and transit counts diverge.
| Hormuz Signal | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Peak daily transits | ~70–78 (June 24, Kpler/S&P) |
| Post-peak (June 25) | 42–54 (Kpler/ABC) |
| Pre-war baseline | ~130/day (AP/Kpler; BBC ~138) |
| Since MOU (June 18+) | 172+ crossings (BBC/Kpler) |
| Stranded inside Gulf | 250+ tankers; 440+ cargo ships (BBC) |
| Attacks | June 25 (Ever Lovely); June 27 (MT Kiku) |
| IMO evacuation | Paused post-June 25 strike |
| Normalization timeline | ~50% transits in 30 days if attacks stop (Kpler analyst, ABC) |
The Bottom Line: Book Hormuz exposure against AIS counts and war-risk premiums, not MOU headlines. Treat surge-then-stall as the baseline pattern until 30+ consecutive days without vessel incidents.
PGSA Permits and the Iran-Oman Joint Committee — Control Is the Product
Category: Geopolitics / Trade Policy
The MOU reopened the waterway, but Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) is now defining who may use it and how.
Since the MOU, PGSA requires vessels to apply online at PGSA.ir at least 48 hours before arrival. Approved permits cover one transit, valid up to five calendar days. Passage must follow the northern route near Larak Island in Iranian waters — Seatrade Maritime notes the US-facilitated southern corridor in Omani waters is not covered by PGSA applications. Deviation is prohibited and treated as a violation. PGSA-approved insurance is mandatory; Iran currently provides coverage free during the 60-day toll-free window but reserves the right to introduce fees later.
Argus reported 300+ non-Iranian vessels have engaged PGSA since late April. Indian Express and Outlook India detail the online form and 48-hour review cycle — approve, request more information, or reject.
The post-60-day fee fight escalated diplomatically. On June 23, Iran and Oman held their first Joint Hormuz Committee meeting in Muscat per Press TV and Gulf News — tasked with future administration, maritime services, and associated fees. Iran's Qalibaf said Hormuz "will never return to pre-war conditions" under Iranian administration. Trump insists tolls are non-negotiable and threatened US-imposed tolls if no final deal emerges within 60 days per AP. Oman says no passage fees are currently planned.
| PGSA / Diplomacy Signal | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Application lead time | 48 hours minimum (PGSA) |
| Permit validity | Single transit; max 5 days |
| Mandatory route | Northern / Larak corridor |
| Toll-free window | 60 days from MOU signing |
| Iran-Oman committee | First meeting June 23 |
| US position | No Iranian tolls; possible US toll threat |
| Vessels engaged PGSA | 300+ non-Iranian (Argus) |
The Action: Build 48-hour permit lead time into Gulf booking schedules. Confirm war-risk and P&I cover PGSA northern routing — southern Omani corridor requires separate clearance.
Brent Falls Below $72 as Gulf Supply Returns — Containers Ignore the Relief
Category: Energy & Fuel / Freight Markets
Oil markets priced returning Gulf barrels even as security risk flared mid-week.
On June 26, Brent settled at $71.99/bbl, down 4.34% on the day per Reuters and The National — ~10.6% below last week's close. WTI finished at $69.23, down ~9.6% weekly. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen noted millions of barrels already loaded on tankers waiting to exit the Gulf plus hundreds of vessels positioned outside to load — a supply surge meeting cautious buyers.
Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at Ras Tanura on June 26 after an ~four-month halt, with two VLCCs loading and another waiting per LSEG/Reuters data cited by The National. IEA reported UAE exports recovered to ~85% of pre-war levels in early June via alternative routes and pipelines.
The June 25 Ever Lovely strike briefly reversed the Friday trend — Brent spiked above $76 before easing — and the IMO evacuation pause reminded markets that supply recovery and security risk coexist.
Container markets ignored oil relief entirely. Drewry's June 25 WCI rose 5% to $4,166 while Brent fell — the same decoupling Issue #19 flagged, now more extreme.
| Energy vs. Containers | June 26–29 Context |
|---|---|
| Brent | ~$71.99/bbl settle (June 26) |
| Weekly Brent move | ▼ ~10.6% (National/Reuters) |
| Aramco Ras Tanura | Loading resumed June 26 |
| WCI (June 25) | $4,166/40ft ▲ 5% |
| Shipper takeaway | Reprice BAF down; lock ocean to WCI |
The Action: Push BAF tables toward ~$72 Brent immediately — but do not defer container bookings expecting oil savings to pass through before July 1 surcharges land.
Drewry WCI Hits $4,166 — 22-Month High as Transpacific Roars
Category: Freight Markets / Container
The container bill set another cycle high while Hormuz dominated headlines. Drewry's World Container Index for June 25 jumped 5% to $4,166 per 40ft container, the highest since September 2024, confirmed by Container News, FreshPlaza, and IndexBox. The composite now stands ~40% above a year ago.
Transpacific led: Shanghai-New York rose 6% to $7,149/40ft and Shanghai-Los Angeles surged 12% to $5,750/40ft. Asia-Europe held firm: Shanghai-Rotterdam up 1% to $4,392; Shanghai-Genoa unchanged at $5,759. Drewry cites four Transpacific blank sailings and three Asia-Europe blanks next week — tight capacity despite some Hormuz relief on bunker costs.
SCFI reached 3,239.64 points on June 26 per SSE — up 3.78% from 3,121.69 and the ninth consecutive weekly gain. Lloyd's List notes SCFI has doubled since the Iran war began and bunker costs jumped ~70% during the Hormuz closure — carriers are passing fuel surcharges through even as Brent eases.
July pricing layers are filed. CMA CGM announced FAK rates of $6,300/feu Asia-Europe and $7,700–8,500/feu Asia-Mediterranean, plus PSS of $1,000/teu (Asia-Europe) and $1,400/teu (Asia-Med) effective July 1 per Drewry.
| Lane / Signal | June 25 Reading | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI composite | $4,166/40ft | ▲ 5% WoW |
| Shanghai-New York | $7,149/40ft | ▲ 6% |
| Shanghai-Los Angeles | $5,750/40ft | ▲ 12% |
| Shanghai-Rotterdam | $4,392/40ft | ▲ 1% |
| SCFI (June 26) | 3,239.64 pts | ▲ 3.78% |
| CMA CGM PSS (July 1) | $1,000–1,400/teu | Asia-Europe/Med |
The Action: At $7,149 Shanghai-New York, cube utilization is freight margin. Lock July sailings now; model PSS/FAK/GRI stacks separately from base ocean rates.
IMO Evacuation Pause and the Stranded-Fleet Overhang
Category: Maritime Risk / Supply Chain
Beyond daily transit counts sits a stock problem: hundreds of ships remain trapped inside the Gulf.
BBC Verify, citing Kpler, reported 250+ tankers and 440+ cargo ships still positioned inside the Gulf based on last AIS positions — with more than 80% of tankers stationary or at anchor and ~one in six carrying cargo. At least 30 laden tankers departed with Iranian oil and petrochemicals since the MOU per BBC, but the backlog is enormous.
The IMO's voluntary evacuation plan — meant to help stranded vessels exit safely — was suspended after the June 25 Ever Lovely attack per AP and Al Jazeera. That pause matters for insurance normalization: UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo told The National that inbound flow recovery requires safety assurances and mine clearance before war-risk premiums normalize.
ExxonMobil's Neil Chapman warned publicly that Brent could spike to $150–160/bbl if Hormuz does not reopen fully within weeks per Lloyd's List — a tail-risk scenario procurement teams should scenario-plan, not dismiss.
| Stranded-Fleet Signal | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Tankers inside Gulf | 250+ (BBC/Kpler) |
| Cargo ships inside Gulf | 440+ (BBC/Kpler) |
| Stationary tankers | >80% at anchor/idle |
| IMO evacuation | Paused (June 25+) |
| Insurance normalization | Requires mine clearance + safety (UBS) |
| Tail-risk Brent | $150–160 if strait stays constrained (ExxonMobil, Lloyd's List) |
The Bottom Line: Outbound surge is real; inbound normalization and insurance relief lag. Plan for extended war-risk premiums through July–August even if daily transit counts keep rising.
CAPE Phase 2 Goes Live — Reconciliation Entries Open June 29
Category: Trade Policy / Customs
Customs refund machinery expanded on schedule. CBP CSMS #69035485 confirms CAPE Phase 2 deployed June 29, 2026 — accepting reconciliation-flagged entries (types 01, 02, 06) where no type-09 reconciliation entry has been filed yet.
Phase 2 runs concurrent with Phase 1 (live since April 20). Entries already on a type-09 reconciliation remain excluded — slated for a future phase. CBP advises holding type-09 filings unless the deadline is <30 days away so CAPE declarations process first.
Latest disbursement figures from June 9 CIT testimony (Issue #19): ~$89B accepted, ~$22B disbursed across 16M+ entries. Phase 3 for finally-liquidated entries remains targeted for late July, still contested in Federal Circuit litigation.
| Trade-Policy Item | Current Reading |
|---|---|
| Phase 2 launch | June 29, 2026 — live |
| Scope | Reconciliation-flagged (types 01, 02, 06) |
| Excluded | Entries with type-09 already filed |
| Phase 1 | Still active (unliquidated + 80-day window) |
| Phase 3 target | Late July — finally liquidated |
| Prior disbursement (June 9) | ~$22B disbursed; ~$89B accepted |
The Action: File Phase 2 CAPE declarations for eligible reconciliation entries before type-09 filings where deadlines allow. Do not assume Phase 3 timing survives litigation.
Red Sea and Cape Baselines Hold as Dual-Chokepoint Risk Persists
Category: Geopolitics / Maritime Risk
Hormuz volatility did not stand down Red Sea risk. The June 8 Houthi Israeli-linked ban remains the active posture; Lloyd's List confirms Asia-Europe Cape diversions continue as the routing baseline, extending transit times and supporting early peak-season front-loading.
The dual-chokepoint problem is structural: when Hormuz closed, Saudi crude routed via Yanbu and the Red Sea; if Bab al-Mandeb re-escalates while Hormuz reopens, shippers face routing whiplash on both energy and container lanes. Drewry and Lloyd's List both cite Red Sea diversions as a driver keeping Asia-Europe schedules long and SCFI elevated.
| Red Sea / Routing Signal | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Houthi posture | Israeli-linked ban since June 8 |
| Asia-Europe routing | Cape diversions remain baseline |
| SCFI impact | Index doubled since war began (Lloyd's List) |
| Combined risk | Hormuz Phase 1 open + Red Sea active threat |
The Action: Do not revert Suez routing on Hormuz surge headlines alone. Require zero Red Sea incidents for a full booking cycle alongside stable Hormuz AIS data.
Palletizr Tip of the Week
Price Two Chokepoints — Not One Headline
This week illustrates the surge-then-stall pattern in Hormuz: traffic peaked near 70–78 daily transits on June 24, vessel attacks followed, and the IMO evacuation plan was paused, all while WCI reached $4,166 and Brent fell below $72.
- Split fuel from freight hedging — Push BAF toward ~$72 Brent, but lock ocean exposure to WCI $4,166 rather than assuming oil relief will flow through.
- Add 48-hour PGSA lead time — Northern-route permits are an operational requirement, not MOU fine print.
- Maximize cube before July 1 — CMA CGM PSS/FAK layers land July 1. Use Palletizr so $7,149 Shanghai-New York moves more freight per box.
When the strait surges and stalls in the same week, structural load efficiency matters more than routing optimism.
Key Dates to Watch
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| June 25 | Ever Lovely struck; IMO evacuation paused | Traffic slowdown begins |
| June 27 | MT Kiku tanker struck | Second attack; US retaliatory strikes |
| June 26 | Aramco Ras Tanura loading resumes | First Gulf loadings in ~4 months |
| June 26 | SCFI 3,239.64 (SSE) | Ninth weekly gain |
| June 23 | Iran-Oman Joint Hormuz Committee | Future fees and administration talks |
| June 29 | CAPE Phase 2 live | Reconciliation-flagged CAPE entries |
| July 1 | Bunker adjustment + CMA CGM PSS/FAK | Major surcharge stack lands |
| Mid-August (~Aug 17–21) | 60-day MOU window ends | Final deal or snapback risk |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Treasury oil waiver expiry | Unless renewed with final deal |
| Late July | CAPE Phase 3 target | Finally-liquidated entries |
| September (est.) | Full Hormuz normalization | Kpler: ~pre-war transits if attacks stop |
The Palletizr Logistics Digest is published weekly to help logistics professionals stay informed and make better decisions. For container loading optimization that reduces costs and prevents damage, visit palletizr.com.