Weekly Briefing • June 29, 2026 • Issue #20
Hormuz Peaked, Then Stalled.
Boxes Rose While Oil Fell.
Last issue closed on a signed memorandum and the first Saudi tanker moves. This week traffic climbed to roughly seventy to seventy-eight crossings on June 24 — the highest daily count since the war began — then bent lower after the container ship Ever Lovely was struck on June 25 and the tanker MT Kiku on June 27. Brent settled near seventy-two dollars. Drewry's World Container Index rose five percent to four thousand one hundred sixty-six dollars. Oil and boxes moved in opposite directions again.
Issue #20. A surge in Hormuz crossings is not the same as a return to pre-war traffic, which ran about one hundred thirty per day. Vessel attacks paused the International Maritime Organization evacuation plan for stranded ships. Persian Gulf Strait Authority permits still require forty-eight hours' notice on the northern route. CAPE Phase 2 opened June 29 for reconciliation-flagged entries.
This Week's Briefing
Traffic Rose, Then Two Ships Were Hit
Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera and ABC put daily Hormuz crossings near seventy on June 24 and seventy-eight in some assessments — a two-month high. By June 25 the container ship Ever Lovely was struck off Oman. U.S. officials attributed the attack to Iran. The International Maritime Organization suspended its voluntary evacuation scheme the same day. On June 27 the tanker MT Kiku was hit. Transit counts fell in the days after.
More than one hundred seventy crossings have been recorded since the June 18 memorandum, according to BBC Verify citing Kpler. That is progress from wartime lows. It is still far below the pre-war baseline of about one hundred thirty crossings per day.
Book Gulf timing against hull counts and war-risk terms — not against memorandum headlines. One attack can erase a week of optimistic messaging.
Container Rates Climbed While Oil Eased
Drewry's June 25 World Container Index rose five percent to four thousand one hundred sixty-six dollars per forty-foot container, confirmed by Container News and IndexBox. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose twelve percent to five thousand seven hundred fifty dollars. Shanghai to New York rose six percent to seven thousand one hundred forty-nine dollars. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index reached three thousand two hundred thirty-nine points on June 26 — a ninth consecutive weekly gain.
Brent settled near seventy-one dollars and ninety-nine cents on June 26, down roughly ten percent on the week per Reuters and The National. Saudi Aramco resumed loading at Ras Tanura the same day after about four months. Cheap oil did not pass through to container spot.
Reprice bunker adjustment factors toward seventy-two-dollar Brent, but lock ocean exposure to the four thousand one hundred sixty-six-dollar index print — not to oil relief alone.
Permits and the Northern Route
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority requires vessels to apply at least forty-eight hours before arrival at PGSA.ir. Approved permits cover one transit, valid up to five days, on the northern route near Larak Island. The U.S.-facilitated southern corridor in Omani waters is not covered by those applications, according to Seatrade Maritime.
Iran and Oman held their first joint Hormuz committee meeting in Muscat on June 23. Future fees and administration were on the agenda. The United States has said Iranian tolls are not acceptable.
Build forty-eight-hour permit lead time into Gulf bookings. Confirm war-risk coverage matches the route the carrier actually plans to use.
CAPE Phase 2 Opened June 29
Customs and Border Protection CSMS number 69035485 confirms CAPE Phase 2 deployed June 29, 2026. It accepts reconciliation-flagged entry types 01, 02, and 06 where no type-09 reconciliation entry has been filed. Entries already on type-09 reconciliation remain excluded for a future phase.
Phase 3 for finally-liquidated entries remains targeted for late July, still contested in Federal Circuit litigation.
File Phase 2 CAPE declarations for eligible entries before type-09 filings where deadlines allow.
The Second Chokepoint Did Not Stand Down
The June 8 Houthi Israeli-linked Red Sea ban remains unchanged. Asia–Europe schedules still run long via the Cape of Good Hope. Hormuz partial recovery and Red Sea risk can stack in the same booking cycle — routing on one strait alone is not enough.
Do not revert Suez routing on Hormuz stabilization alone. Require stable traffic on both chokepoints for a full booking cycle before treating routing as normalized.
💡 Palletizr Tip of the Week
Split Fuel From Freight
- Bunker tables. Push bunker adjustment toward seventy-two-dollar Brent — carriers may still walk fuel clauses back up after June's oil spike.
- Ocean lock. Model July 1 carrier peak-season surcharges separately from base ocean rates. CMA CGM filed Asia–Europe surcharges effective July 1.
- Cube. At seven thousand one hundred forty-nine dollars Shanghai to New York, utilization is margin — not a back-office detail.
📦 Palletizr Calculator · iPhone
Fit the cargo. Price the options. Book the winner.
Enter carton sizes and quantities, then optimize. With an ocean rate, Palletizr prices each packing plan so you can book the one that fits and costs less. Still waiting on a quote? Optimize for space first and add the rate when it lands.
Price the options
Type the all-in ocean rate, run optimize, and compare loads by utilization and cost per carton before you book.
Fit the cargo
No rate yet? Optimize for space. See what fits, which container wins, and keep the 3D plan ready to price.
- Fit the cargo — dims, weight, quantity
- Price the options — add your ocean rate, or skip it
- Book the winner — utilization, cost, 3D preview
On iPhone, the same three steps take under a minute: cartons, container, 3D results. Same account as web.
What to Watch, by Date
June 29: CAPE Phase 2 live for reconciliation-flagged entries. July 1: CMA CGM peak-season surcharge stack and related carrier adjustments. July 15: HMM peak-season surcharge on file. Mid-August (~August 17–21): sixty-day memorandum window closes. Late July: CAPE Phase 3 target for finally-liquidated entries.
The Palletizr Logistics Digest is published weekly. For container loading that respects the quote you actually booked, visit palletizr.com.